ShowVivor picks for Sunday, February 27, 2011

Looking ahead to Sunday’s card. 

RACE 1 -- This race has six entrants and features a standout runner. SILVER LUNA looks good on paper, looked good in the video, and is the top choice of all four handicappers in the Racing Form.  The only reason to go with another selection is to try to separate yourself from the pack with a choice at higher odds.

RACE 2 -- Eight runners here.  LOST PROPHET looms the standout, but I kinda smell a rat.  She won a week ago as the overwhelming favorite for $10K, and now they put her in for $8K?  Why? Why drop her price after she wins?  I don’t trust’er, and two of the four handicappers are picking others.  I’m gonna skip this race.

RACE 3 -- Seven horse field.  No first-time starters, but they’re generally inexperienced four-year olds.  That’s weird.  Everyone seems to like PREFERRED BEHAVIOR, but you got P.Val taking over for Edwin Maldonado on a Richard Rosales trainee??  Not enough information to compute.  Skip.

RACE 4 – Nine horse field.  It’ll still be raining Saturday night, so this’ll prolly come off the grass.  That’ll cut down on runners and leave us with a pretty good dirt performer: SAMBA SCHOOL.  She should get a pretty easy lead on this group and just keep going.  I feel good about that one.

RACE 5 -- 8-horse field.  I had FAIRWAY ROAD on my horses to watch list, and now I look down and see 3 of the 4 ‘cappers have her winning, and they all have her in the money.  Funny thing is, on paper, SMALL BUT MIGHTY looks pretty good, but, then again, she seems to do better against Cal-breds, and this is open company.  I’ll stick with FAIRWAY ROAD.

RACE 6 – Seven in an all-girl sprint.  WORD ASSOCIATION is the big pick among the ‘cappers, and it’s easy to see why.  Her Beyers in any of her last four races would be career best for all of the runners here but one; and she’s run in the money in 12 of 14 lifetime races.  She’s not a guaranteed winner, but she seems pretty sure to ShowVive.  You won’t be the only one in the contest using her.

RACE 7 – Eleven fillies and mare around two turns.  I like the also-eligible, GUMPTION, but there’s the obvious question of whether or not she even runs.  She was boxed in on the rail in her last, but she kept trying and edged out SUMMER GAMES for third.  SUMMER GAMES was alone on the lead in that last outing, and figures to get a similar trip Sunday.  I dunno… She got an easy lead last time and blew it; why should this time be any different?  If GUMPTION runs, she’s my pick.  If she doesn’t, I’m tempted to take a stab with ROYAL TIGER.  Ultimately, I don’t think this is a good ShowVivor race.  Skip.

RACE 8 – The Feature.  Not exactly Derby Day.  Ten horses at six and a half furlongs.  Down the hill...?  That’s up to the weatherman.  Sometimes they leave the feature on the grass even when it’s wet.  DANCING IN SILKS won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint a little over a year ago, and now he’s in this $100k handicap for statebreds.  How the mighty have fallen.  On the other hand, Kathy Walsh has taken over the training, and she can never be overlooked first time out, or off a layoff.  He’d be a good win bet, but his form's shaky, and I need more certitude with my ShowVivor pick.  My pick here is either EARNEDNEVERGIVEN or QUICK ENOUGH.  If it stays on the grass—EARNED; if it moves to the dirt—QUICK ENOUGH. 

RACE 9 – Eight Fillies; five debuters.  SPECTACULAR SKY should make the lead, and has experience at 7 furlongs.  Should be good, but I don’t use 3yo fillies in Showvivor.

Once again, scratches will determine a lot.  I'll use one of these:  SILVER LUNA, SAMBA SCHOOL, FAIRWAY ROAD, or my circumstantial choice between EARNEDNEVERGIVEN and QUICK ENOUGH.

 Oh, BTW, Baffert's got SERENE SOPHIA in the 7th, and PINK LOLLIPOPS in the 9th.

Show-vivor Picks for February 26, 2011

I had a chance to get an early look at Saturday's races.  Here's my rundown for Day One of Show-vivor at Santa Anita. http://showvivor.santaanita.com/

RACE 1 -- This race will probably go off with 11 runners.  A LOT for a Show-vivor pick.  Still, one of my strongest picks for the day is in this race.  ENTABENI was a heavy favorite in her last, but lost her chance at the break.  She broke at the back of the pack, but made up a lot of ground in the stretch.  Sadler trains and Rosario returns for the mount.  Only thing I don't like is the inside post.  It's tough to win down the hill from the inside.

RACE 2 -- Six runners in this race increases your odds of staying in the money.  The consensus favorite is BELO PURSE, because he's dropping to half his price for Carava off a 5th place finish in his last.  I dunno.  I don't see a 6f sprint in his race history.  Why are they cutting his price in half?  I don't trust him.

RACE 3 -- Seven horse field.  More than half of them are first-time starters.  JACOBCITA and RANDOM LUCK seem to be on everyone's list, based on previous experience.  But there's no way to know how good the new faces are.  I don't trust new horses in Show-vivor.

RACE 4 -- This is a large field with new horses, and most of them are going down the grassy slope for the first time.  I do like one of them based on the video I saw of her last-- CUTE N SASSY.  There's a lot to like, including the trainer and jockey.  Still, what makes a good wagering selection, might not be best for Show-vivor. 

RACE 5 -- 8-horse field.  I like two horses in here.  One's a safe pick; one's a ballsy one.  BERTRAN HILL is Brad Free's top selection, and looks pretty solid to me, too.  Finished a close 4th against tougher last out, after having to make up ground late.  The risky proposition is NICE MOVE, who broke extremely poorly last out (it says "broke through gate" in the Form), threw his head around, rushed up, and generally seemed to have trouble throughout.  He finished last 14 lengths behind. He's worked well since, and I'm certain he'll improve greatly.  Still, that'd take balls to make him your Show-vivor pick.

RACE 6 -- 8 young horses.  Two debuting; four with only one race under their belt; only two with more than two races.  The 'cappers are all over the place.  Three different horses are made as the "top selection" of three different handicappers, and Brad Free picks a different one.  And I like RED SHARP HUMOR and he's not chosen by any of them.  Don't use this race.

RACE 7 -- This is an 11 horse field. UNZIP ME is Brad Free's top selection and mine as well.  (Chuck Kuehas doesn't even have him coming in the money.)  Martin Jones training; Rafi up.  He seems an obvious winner to me.  Still, it's a fairly large field, and anything can happen in horse racing.

RACE 8 -- 6 horses in.  MR. COMMONS has the top last-out Beyer.  I won money on him last time out, but that was sprinting down the grassy hill, and now he's facing winners and running long on the dirt to boot.  Still... he's the one all the 'cappers like.  I wouldn't use him for Show-vivor.

RACE 9 -- Big field; inexperienced fillies.  SWEET CONSOLIDATOR has been consistently in the money in 7 of her last 8 races, but no one's got her as their top pick.  Everyone seems to like LIMERICK LANE, who is certainly no slam dunk.  CLUBHOUSE RULES and RIVER'S MAMBO should improve on the drop.  Like I said:  big field; inexperienced fillies.  Pass. 

 Pending any race day scratches, I'll use either ENTABENI, BERTRAN HILL or UNZIP ME as my Show-vivor selection.