I had a chance to get an early look at Saturday's races. Here's my rundown for Day One of Show-vivor at Santa Anita. http://showvivor.santaanita.com/
RACE 1 -- This race will probably go off with 11 runners. A LOT for a Show-vivor pick. Still, one of my strongest picks for the day is in this race. ENTABENI was a heavy favorite in her last, but lost her chance at the break. She broke at the back of the pack, but made up a lot of ground in the stretch. Sadler trains and Rosario returns for the mount. Only thing I don't like is the inside post. It's tough to win down the hill from the inside.
RACE 2 -- Six runners in this race increases your odds of staying in the money. The consensus favorite is BELO PURSE, because he's dropping to half his price for Carava off a 5th place finish in his last. I dunno. I don't see a 6f sprint in his race history. Why are they cutting his price in half? I don't trust him.
RACE 3 -- Seven horse field. More than half of them are first-time starters. JACOBCITA and RANDOM LUCK seem to be on everyone's list, based on previous experience. But there's no way to know how good the new faces are. I don't trust new horses in Show-vivor.
RACE 4 -- This is a large field with new horses, and most of them are going down the grassy slope for the first time. I do like one of them based on the video I saw of her last-- CUTE N SASSY. There's a lot to like, including the trainer and jockey. Still, what makes a good wagering selection, might not be best for Show-vivor.
RACE 5 -- 8-horse field. I like two horses in here. One's a safe pick; one's a ballsy one. BERTRAN HILL is Brad Free's top selection, and looks pretty solid to me, too. Finished a close 4th against tougher last out, after having to make up ground late. The risky proposition is NICE MOVE, who broke extremely poorly last out (it says "broke through gate" in the Form), threw his head around, rushed up, and generally seemed to have trouble throughout. He finished last 14 lengths behind. He's worked well since, and I'm certain he'll improve greatly. Still, that'd take balls to make him your Show-vivor pick.
RACE 6 -- 8 young horses. Two debuting; four with only one race under their belt; only two with more than two races. The 'cappers are all over the place. Three different horses are made as the "top selection" of three different handicappers, and Brad Free picks a different one. And I like RED SHARP HUMOR and he's not chosen by any of them. Don't use this race.
RACE 7 -- This is an 11 horse field. UNZIP ME is Brad Free's top selection and mine as well. (Chuck Kuehas doesn't even have him coming in the money.) Martin Jones training; Rafi up. He seems an obvious winner to me. Still, it's a fairly large field, and anything can happen in horse racing.
RACE 8 -- 6 horses in. MR. COMMONS has the top last-out Beyer. I won money on him last time out, but that was sprinting down the grassy hill, and now he's facing winners and running long on the dirt to boot. Still... he's the one all the 'cappers like. I wouldn't use him for Show-vivor.
RACE 9 -- Big field; inexperienced fillies. SWEET CONSOLIDATOR has been consistently in the money in 7 of her last 8 races, but no one's got her as their top pick. Everyone seems to like LIMERICK LANE, who is certainly no slam dunk. CLUBHOUSE RULES and RIVER'S MAMBO should improve on the drop. Like I said: big field; inexperienced fillies. Pass.
Pending any race day scratches, I'll use either ENTABENI, BERTRAN HILL or UNZIP ME as my Show-vivor selection.
No comments:
Post a Comment