Looking ahead to Sunday’s card.
RACE 1 -- This race has six entrants and features a standout runner. SILVER LUNA looks good on paper, looked good in the video, and is the top choice of all four handicappers in the Racing Form. The only reason to go with another selection is to try to separate yourself from the pack with a choice at higher odds.
RACE 2 -- Eight runners here. LOST PROPHET looms the standout, but I kinda smell a rat. She won a week ago as the overwhelming favorite for $10K, and now they put her in for $8K? Why? Why drop her price after she wins? I don’t trust’er, and two of the four handicappers are picking others. I’m gonna skip this race.
RACE 3 -- Seven horse field. No first-time starters, but they’re generally inexperienced four-year olds. That’s weird. Everyone seems to like PREFERRED BEHAVIOR, but you got P.Val taking over for Edwin Maldonado on a Richard Rosales trainee?? Not enough information to compute. Skip.
RACE 4 – Nine horse field. It’ll still be raining Saturday night, so this’ll prolly come off the grass. That’ll cut down on runners and leave us with a pretty good dirt performer: SAMBA SCHOOL. She should get a pretty easy lead on this group and just keep going. I feel good about that one.
RACE 5 -- 8-horse field. I had FAIRWAY ROAD on my horses to watch list, and now I look down and see 3 of the 4 ‘cappers have her winning, and they all have her in the money. Funny thing is, on paper, SMALL BUT MIGHTY looks pretty good, but, then again, she seems to do better against Cal-breds, and this is open company. I’ll stick with FAIRWAY ROAD.
RACE 6 – Seven in an all-girl sprint. WORD ASSOCIATION is the big pick among the ‘cappers, and it’s easy to see why. Her Beyers in any of her last four races would be career best for all of the runners here but one; and she’s run in the money in 12 of 14 lifetime races. She’s not a guaranteed winner, but she seems pretty sure to ShowVive. You won’t be the only one in the contest using her.
RACE 7 – Eleven fillies and mare around two turns. I like the also-eligible, GUMPTION, but there’s the obvious question of whether or not she even runs. She was boxed in on the rail in her last, but she kept trying and edged out SUMMER GAMES for third. SUMMER GAMES was alone on the lead in that last outing, and figures to get a similar trip Sunday. I dunno… She got an easy lead last time and blew it; why should this time be any different? If GUMPTION runs, she’s my pick. If she doesn’t, I’m tempted to take a stab with ROYAL TIGER. Ultimately, I don’t think this is a good ShowVivor race. Skip.
RACE 8 – The Feature. Not exactly Derby Day. Ten horses at six and a half furlongs. Down the hill...? That’s up to the weatherman. Sometimes they leave the feature on the grass even when it’s wet. DANCING IN SILKS won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint a little over a year ago, and now he’s in this $100k handicap for statebreds. How the mighty have fallen. On the other hand, Kathy Walsh has taken over the training, and she can never be overlooked first time out, or off a layoff. He’d be a good win bet, but his form's shaky, and I need more certitude with my ShowVivor pick. My pick here is either EARNEDNEVERGIVEN or QUICK ENOUGH. If it stays on the grass—EARNED; if it moves to the dirt—QUICK ENOUGH.
RACE 9 – Eight Fillies; five debuters. SPECTACULAR SKY should make the lead, and has experience at 7 furlongs. Should be good, but I don’t use 3yo fillies in Showvivor.
Once again, scratches will determine a lot. I'll use one of these: SILVER LUNA, SAMBA SCHOOL, FAIRWAY ROAD, or my circumstantial choice between EARNEDNEVERGIVEN and QUICK ENOUGH.
Oh, BTW, Baffert's got SERENE SOPHIA in the 7th, and PINK LOLLIPOPS in the 9th.
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