UPDATE, March 3rd @ 10:50am (Pacific): There have been some notable scratches.
R-3 -- Where's the Remote is out of the 3rd, making it a 6 horse field, and CELTIC NEW YEAR a much stronger choice.
R-4 -- Royal Meridian and He's So Stylish are both out of the 4th, also making that a 6 horse field. Making RANCHERO a stronger choice. (I still recommend skipping this race.)
R-5 -- Beautiful American and Apt to be Amazing are both out of the 5th, taking that from a 12 to a ten horse field. Despite the large field, I think RULE THE STORM is now a really obvious choice.
There’s a big Pick-6 Carryover going in to Thursday’s card. But you don’t care about that; you just want to ShowVive!!
RACE 1—Seven fillies and mares—Cal-breds only. When I look at these cards, I peruse the past performances and make my own selections, then compare them to the public handicappers posted in the DRF. This race, I was waffling between FULLBRIDLED’S SIS and JAX EL. JAX EL is the top selection of every single ‘capper; FULLBRIDLED’S SIS doesn’t have a single backer in the money. JAX EL has speed and the outside post—two strong assets going down the hill. She’s also shown some very fast workouts. I assume she’ll make the lead early and just keep going. No small fields today—seven’s as short as you get.
RACE 2—Eight runners here. Short sprint—five and a half furlongs. Lifetime maidens or newcomers, four and up. Very messy proposition. OUR LAST MONTE and GAELIC GLORY are the big faves, but none of these is a sure thing. They’ve all crashed and burned at some point. I’d skip this race.
RACE 3—Seven good horses. Mile and an eighth on the turf. I like three in here: PORFIDO; CELTIC NEW YEAR & WORTH REPEATING. I actually kinda like PORFIDO the most (I think he might just lead them all the way around), but no one’s even got him in the money. The other two are Brad Free’s second and third choices. CELTIC NEW YEAR seems a more unamimous choice among the handicappers.
RACE 4—Eight maidens, four and up, going 6 furlongs. SCREAMING DESTINY was on my horses to watch list. Brad Free has him up to show; no one else even has him listed. RANCHERO’s on everyone’s list, because he’s got the high last Beyer, and because he’s a Baffert. Lightly run maidens…anything can happen. I’d say skip.
RACE 5—Big race; 12 entrants. The horse I picked the other day that got scratched out of the turf race—ENTABENI—is in here. But instead of sprinting down the hill, he’s running a turf mile instead. And now the pace doesn’t seem to set up for him. Once again, I’m torn between two horses, and feeling like the fool… RULE THE STORM and BEAUTIFUL AMERICAN. These two are also Brad Free’s top picks. (Actually, Brad’s got ENTABENI coming in third.) RULE THE STORM’s getting more support from the other ‘cappers. The one who gets to the front first should win. A dozen horses on the turf. Maybe skip this race.
RACE 6—Eight three year olds. Five and half furlongs again. Another poor ShowVivor race. The ‘cappers all seem to like OHANA SPIRIT, but that’s because they don’t’ have enough information to compute. Skip.
RACE 7—Ten horses running for $56k on the turf. Once again, the one I think is obvious (RULE BREAKER), is Brad Free’s third pick, and no one else even has him in the money. He was running well in stakes races in England, and now he gets Lasix for the second time and has a chance at redemption after a slow start in his US debut. Darrell Vienna/David Flores… He should be up in front in a paceless race. I know no one else likes him, but I’m still picking him. DAHOUD is a more popular pick, and should also be running towards the front.
RACE 8—Eight maidens, six furlongs. SHELTER COVER looks okay based on experience. If I were betting, I’d take a shot with the Kathy Walsh debuter, SEMPER AUGUSTUS. Too many wild cards. Skip.
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