FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE:
Even though I have misgivings about him, GALLANT GENT's now the heavy favorite in a five-horse field. (He was the favorite before the two scratches.) A lot of people will be on him because he's taking a big class drop, and the assumption is he'll dominate this much weaker field. He probably will. Still, he's been consistently getting his ass kicked against the tougher ones, so I don't think he's a lock.
You might want to risk taking a shot against the crowd in a larger race, hoping a bunch of suckers go down with GENT.
It's a tough call.
If you go different, here are some other choices.
RACE 1 -- BRASS PLATE (11 horse field)
RACE 5 -- KAJIWARA (10 horse field)
RACE 6 -- REALITY RIDE (9 horse field)
RACE 7 -- SEPARATE FOREST (10 horse field)
I think I'm gonna place a healthy show wager on FOREST.
At least 570 knocked out on Thursday.
Even though I have misgivings about him, GALLANT GENT's now the heavy favorite in a five-horse field. (He was the favorite before the two scratches.) A lot of people will be on him because he's taking a big class drop, and the assumption is he'll dominate this much weaker field. He probably will. Still, he's been consistently getting his ass kicked against the tougher ones, so I don't think he's a lock.
You might want to risk taking a shot against the crowd in a larger race, hoping a bunch of suckers go down with GENT.
It's a tough call.
If you go different, here are some other choices.
RACE 1 -- BRASS PLATE (11 horse field)
RACE 5 -- KAJIWARA (10 horse field)
RACE 6 -- REALITY RIDE (9 horse field)
RACE 7 -- SEPARATE FOREST (10 horse field)
I think I'm gonna place a healthy show wager on FOREST.
At least 570 knocked out on Thursday.
I’m not sure who’s left, but it sure ain’t me. In any case here are my ShowViver Picks!!
RACE 1—Nine three-year old fillies sprinting down the hill.. Tricky call here. The field is split between speedsters and closers, and I lke outside horses down the hill, and the two I like best, LUNCH TIME DIVA and ADVANTAGE PLAYER are stuck on the inside posts. Lunchtime Diva has been in the exacta 4 for 5 times, and broke her maiden going down this course. Advantage Player was overmatched in a G-3 on this course chasing a super hot pace. I lke them both, but neither is a sure thing. So Belle is the handicappers’ favorite. I’d say skip.
RACE 2—Six runners here. Cheap claimers going a mile on the dirt. Another field split between speed and closers. You put a gun to my head, I’ll pick CANDY FOR PASEANA. Good Beyers. They keep dropping his price and he keeps disappointing. The ‘cappers are all over the place. ISLAND RUN seems a consistent choice. The short field is tempting, but I’d skip this race, too.
RACE 3—Eleven, count ‘em eleven three year old Cal-Breds. A Mile on the turf. Yet another divided between speed and closers!! Let’s split the difference and go with an off-the-pace type: BRASS PLATE. This is only the colt’s third race, but he ran nicely his first two out for John Sadler, Rosario sticks around, and he’s Brad Free’s play of the day.
RACE 4—Seven entrants; a mile on the dirt. GALLANT GENT is the unanimous choice of the handicappers, and my pick lukewarm pick as well. Dropping from a $35k to a $10k. I dunno. Another short field that might be better to skip.
RACE 5—Big race; scratch the #1, and we stil have 12 entrants. Another grass sprint down the hill. I kinda like KAJIWARA, because of his potential. Still, he is lightly raced, and has never been down the hill before, and he’s got an inside post. Bummer. They’re not making this easy.
RACE 6—Nine entrants; four years old and up. Six furlongs, main track. These are all lightly raced maidens, but I’m running out of time to make a selection. FRISCO KID has babe-a-licious rider Chantal Sutherland on his back—Brad Free likes that angle. I’m leaning towards the outside horse, REALITY RIDE. He was one of my horses to watch two back, and he ran 2nd again last time. And Rosario stays. If he repeats, he’s at least in the money.
RACE 7—Eleven scratches down to ten. Still a lot of Cal-Bred Fillies and Mares. I like two: SEPARATE FOREST and MAGIC LAUNCH. Brad Free has the same two on top. Brad’s leaning towards Magic Launch; I like Separate Forest, although Magic horse won four straight going down this hillside course. I know it’s be better if I could be sure of one.
RACE 8—Eleven $30k maidens , six and a half furlongs. MCDUFFIE took a lot of money in her debut, and ran on well at the end. With a race under her belt, she should at least come in the money. Oh, Jeez. I just looked at the sheet. No one’s even got her in the money. Good bet, but not a good ShowVivor pick. There’s a Baffert in this race, first time starter ONE GAME DUDE.
I’m posting this on Thursday night. Let’s hope there’s a scratch or two to help clarify things in the morning.
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