ShowVivor picks for Friday, March 4, 2011.

FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE:

Even though I have misgivings about him, GALLANT GENT's now the heavy favorite in a five-horse field.  (He was the favorite before the two scratches.)  A lot of people will be on him because he's taking a big class drop, and the assumption is he'll dominate this much weaker field.  He probably will.  Still, he's been consistently getting his ass kicked against the tougher ones, so I don't think he's a lock.

You might want to risk taking a shot against the crowd in a larger race, hoping a bunch of suckers go down with GENT.

It's a tough call.

If you go different, here are some other choices.

RACE 1 -- BRASS PLATE (11 horse field)
RACE 5 -- KAJIWARA  (10 horse field)
RACE 6 -- REALITY RIDE (9 horse field)
RACE 7 -- SEPARATE FOREST (10 horse field)

I think I'm gonna place a healthy show wager on FOREST.


At least 570 knocked out on Thursday.

I’m not sure who’s left, but it sure ain’t me.  In any case here are my ShowViver Picks!!

RACE 1—Nine three-year old fillies sprinting down the hill..  Tricky call here.  The field is split between speedsters and closers, and I lke outside horses down the hill, and the two I like best, LUNCH TIME DIVA and ADVANTAGE PLAYER are stuck on the inside posts.  Lunchtime Diva has been in the exacta 4 for 5 times, and broke her maiden going down this course.  Advantage Player was overmatched in a G-3 on this course chasing a super hot pace.  I lke them both, but neither is a sure thing.  So Belle is the handicappers’ favorite.  I’d say skip.

RACE 2—Six runners here.  Cheap claimers going a mile on the dirt.  Another field split between speed and closers.  You put a gun to my head, I’ll pick CANDY FOR PASEANA.  Good Beyers.  They keep dropping his price and he keeps disappointing.  The ‘cappers are all over the place.  ISLAND RUN seems a consistent choice.  The short field is tempting, but I’d skip this race, too.

RACE 3—Eleven, count ‘em eleven three year old Cal-Breds.  A Mile on the turf.  Yet another divided between speed and closers!!  Let’s split the difference and go with an off-the-pace type:  BRASS PLATE.  This is only the colt’s third race, but he ran nicely his first two out for John Sadler, Rosario sticks around, and he’s Brad Free’s play of the day. 

RACE 4—Seven entrants; a mile on the dirt.  GALLANT GENT is the unanimous choice of the handicappers, and my pick lukewarm pick as well.  Dropping from a $35k to a $10k.  I dunno.  Another short field that might be better to skip.

RACE 5—Big race; scratch the #1, and we stil have 12 entrants.  Another grass sprint down the hill.  I kinda like KAJIWARA, because of his potential.  Still, he is lightly raced, and has never been down the hill before, and he’s got an inside post.  Bummer.  They’re not making this easy.

RACE 6—Nine entrants; four years old and up.  Six furlongs, main track.  These are all lightly raced maidens, but I’m running out of time to make a selection.  FRISCO KID has babe-a-licious rider Chantal Sutherland on his back—Brad Free likes that angle.  I’m leaning towards the outside horse, REALITY RIDE.  He was one of my horses to watch two back, and he ran 2^nd again last time.  And Rosario stays.  If he repeats, he’s at least in the money. 

RACE 7—Eleven scratches down to ten.  Still a lot of Cal-Bred Fillies and Mares.  I like two:  SEPARATE FOREST and MAGIC LAUNCH.  Brad Free has the same two on top.  Brad’s leaning towards Magic Launch; I like Separate Forest, although Magic horse won four straight going down this hillside course.  I know it’s be better if I could be sure of one. 

RACE 8—Eleven $30k maidens , six and a half furlongs.  MCDUFFIE took a lot of money in her debut, and ran on well at the end.  With a race under her belt, she should at least come in the money.  Oh, Jeez.  I just looked at the sheet.  No one’s even got her in the money.  Good bet, but not a good ShowVivor pick.   There’s a Baffert in this race, first time starter ONE GAME DUDE.

I’m posting this on Thursday night.  Let’s hope there’s a scratch or two to help clarify things in the morning.

ShowVivor picks for Thursday, March 3, 2011.

UPDATE, March 3rd @ 10:50am (Pacific):  There have been some notable scratches. 

 

R-3  --  Where's the Remote is out of the 3rd, making it a 6 horse field, and CELTIC NEW YEAR a much stronger choice.

 

R-4 -- Royal Meridian and He's So Stylish are both out of the 4th, also making that a 6 horse field.  Making RANCHERO a stronger choice.  (I still recommend skipping this race.)

 

R-5 -- Beautiful American and Apt to be Amazing are both out of the 5th, taking that from a 12 to a ten horse field.  Despite the large field, I think RULE THE STORM is now a really obvious choice.

There’s a big Pick-6 Carryover going in to Thursday’s card.  But you don’t care about that; you just want to ShowVive!!

RACE 1—Seven fillies and mares—Cal-breds only.  When I look at these cards, I peruse the past performances and make my own selections, then compare them to the public handicappers posted in the DRF.  This race, I was waffling between FULLBRIDLED’S SIS and JAX EL.  JAX EL is the top selection of every single ‘capper; FULLBRIDLED’S SIS doesn’t have a single backer in the money.  JAX EL has speed and the outside post—two strong assets going down the hill.  She’s also shown some very fast workouts.  I assume she’ll make the lead early and just keep going.  No small fields today—seven’s as short as you get.

RACE 2—Eight runners here.  Short sprint—five and a half furlongs.  Lifetime maidens or newcomers, four and up.  Very messy proposition.  OUR LAST MONTE and GAELIC GLORY are the big faves, but none of these is a sure thing.  They’ve all crashed and burned at some point.  I’d skip this race.

RACE 3—Seven good horses.   Mile and an eighth on the turf.  I like three in here: PORFIDO; CELTIC NEW YEAR & WORTH REPEATING.  I actually kinda like PORFIDO the most (I think he might just lead them all the way around), but no one’s even got him in the money.  The other two are Brad Free’s second and third choices.  CELTIC NEW YEAR seems a more unamimous choice among the handicappers.

RACE 4—Eight maidens, four and up, going 6 furlongs.  SCREAMING DESTINY was on my horses to watch list.  Brad Free has him up to show; no one else even has him listed.  RANCHERO’s on everyone’s list, because he’s got the high last Beyer, and because he’s a Baffert.  Lightly run maidens…anything can happen.  I’d say skip.

RACE 5—Big race; 12 entrants.  The horse I picked the other day that got scratched out of the turf race—ENTABENI—is in here.  But instead of sprinting down the hill, he’s running a turf mile instead.  And now the pace doesn’t seem to set up for him.  Once again, I’m torn between two horses, and feeling like the fool…  RULE THE STORM and BEAUTIFUL AMERICAN.  These two are also Brad Free’s top picks.  (Actually, Brad’s got ENTABENI coming in third.)  RULE THE STORM’s getting more support from the other ‘cappers.  The one who gets to the front first should win.  A dozen horses on the turf.  Maybe skip this race.

RACE 6—Eight three year olds.  Five and half furlongs again.  Another poor ShowVivor race.  The ‘cappers all seem to like OHANA SPIRIT, but that’s because they don’t’ have enough information to compute.  Skip.

RACE 7—Ten horses running for $56k on the turf.  Once again, the one I think is obvious (RULE BREAKER), is Brad Free’s third pick, and no one else even has him in the money.  He was running well in stakes races in England, and now he gets Lasix for the second time and has a chance at redemption after a slow start in his US debut.  Darrell Vienna/David Flores…  He should be up in front in a paceless race.  I know no one else likes him, but I’m still picking him.  DAHOUD is a more popular pick, and should also be running towards the front. 

RACE 8—Eight maidens, six furlongs.  SHELTER COVER looks okay based on experience.  If I were betting, I’d take a shot with the Kathy Walsh debuter, SEMPER AUGUSTUS.  Too many wild cards.  Skip.