ShowVivor picks for Friday, March 4, 2011.

FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE:

Even though I have misgivings about him, GALLANT GENT's now the heavy favorite in a five-horse field.  (He was the favorite before the two scratches.)  A lot of people will be on him because he's taking a big class drop, and the assumption is he'll dominate this much weaker field.  He probably will.  Still, he's been consistently getting his ass kicked against the tougher ones, so I don't think he's a lock.

You might want to risk taking a shot against the crowd in a larger race, hoping a bunch of suckers go down with GENT.

It's a tough call.

If you go different, here are some other choices.

RACE 1 -- BRASS PLATE (11 horse field)
RACE 5 -- KAJIWARA  (10 horse field)
RACE 6 -- REALITY RIDE (9 horse field)
RACE 7 -- SEPARATE FOREST (10 horse field)

I think I'm gonna place a healthy show wager on FOREST.


At least 570 knocked out on Thursday.

I’m not sure who’s left, but it sure ain’t me.  In any case here are my ShowViver Picks!!

RACE 1—Nine three-year old fillies sprinting down the hill..  Tricky call here.  The field is split between speedsters and closers, and I lke outside horses down the hill, and the two I like best, LUNCH TIME DIVA and ADVANTAGE PLAYER are stuck on the inside posts.  Lunchtime Diva has been in the exacta 4 for 5 times, and broke her maiden going down this course.  Advantage Player was overmatched in a G-3 on this course chasing a super hot pace.  I lke them both, but neither is a sure thing.  So Belle is the handicappers’ favorite.  I’d say skip.

RACE 2—Six runners here.  Cheap claimers going a mile on the dirt.  Another field split between speed and closers.  You put a gun to my head, I’ll pick CANDY FOR PASEANA.  Good Beyers.  They keep dropping his price and he keeps disappointing.  The ‘cappers are all over the place.  ISLAND RUN seems a consistent choice.  The short field is tempting, but I’d skip this race, too.

RACE 3—Eleven, count ‘em eleven three year old Cal-Breds.  A Mile on the turf.  Yet another divided between speed and closers!!  Let’s split the difference and go with an off-the-pace type:  BRASS PLATE.  This is only the colt’s third race, but he ran nicely his first two out for John Sadler, Rosario sticks around, and he’s Brad Free’s play of the day. 

RACE 4—Seven entrants; a mile on the dirt.  GALLANT GENT is the unanimous choice of the handicappers, and my pick lukewarm pick as well.  Dropping from a $35k to a $10k.  I dunno.  Another short field that might be better to skip.

RACE 5—Big race; scratch the #1, and we stil have 12 entrants.  Another grass sprint down the hill.  I kinda like KAJIWARA, because of his potential.  Still, he is lightly raced, and has never been down the hill before, and he’s got an inside post.  Bummer.  They’re not making this easy.

RACE 6—Nine entrants; four years old and up.  Six furlongs, main track.  These are all lightly raced maidens, but I’m running out of time to make a selection.  FRISCO KID has babe-a-licious rider Chantal Sutherland on his back—Brad Free likes that angle.  I’m leaning towards the outside horse, REALITY RIDE.  He was one of my horses to watch two back, and he ran 2^nd again last time.  And Rosario stays.  If he repeats, he’s at least in the money. 

RACE 7—Eleven scratches down to ten.  Still a lot of Cal-Bred Fillies and Mares.  I like two:  SEPARATE FOREST and MAGIC LAUNCH.  Brad Free has the same two on top.  Brad’s leaning towards Magic Launch; I like Separate Forest, although Magic horse won four straight going down this hillside course.  I know it’s be better if I could be sure of one. 

RACE 8—Eleven $30k maidens , six and a half furlongs.  MCDUFFIE took a lot of money in her debut, and ran on well at the end.  With a race under her belt, she should at least come in the money.  Oh, Jeez.  I just looked at the sheet.  No one’s even got her in the money.  Good bet, but not a good ShowVivor pick.   There’s a Baffert in this race, first time starter ONE GAME DUDE.

I’m posting this on Thursday night.  Let’s hope there’s a scratch or two to help clarify things in the morning.

ShowVivor picks for Thursday, March 3, 2011.

UPDATE, March 3rd @ 10:50am (Pacific):  There have been some notable scratches. 

 

R-3  --  Where's the Remote is out of the 3rd, making it a 6 horse field, and CELTIC NEW YEAR a much stronger choice.

 

R-4 -- Royal Meridian and He's So Stylish are both out of the 4th, also making that a 6 horse field.  Making RANCHERO a stronger choice.  (I still recommend skipping this race.)

 

R-5 -- Beautiful American and Apt to be Amazing are both out of the 5th, taking that from a 12 to a ten horse field.  Despite the large field, I think RULE THE STORM is now a really obvious choice.

There’s a big Pick-6 Carryover going in to Thursday’s card.  But you don’t care about that; you just want to ShowVive!!

RACE 1—Seven fillies and mares—Cal-breds only.  When I look at these cards, I peruse the past performances and make my own selections, then compare them to the public handicappers posted in the DRF.  This race, I was waffling between FULLBRIDLED’S SIS and JAX EL.  JAX EL is the top selection of every single ‘capper; FULLBRIDLED’S SIS doesn’t have a single backer in the money.  JAX EL has speed and the outside post—two strong assets going down the hill.  She’s also shown some very fast workouts.  I assume she’ll make the lead early and just keep going.  No small fields today—seven’s as short as you get.

RACE 2—Eight runners here.  Short sprint—five and a half furlongs.  Lifetime maidens or newcomers, four and up.  Very messy proposition.  OUR LAST MONTE and GAELIC GLORY are the big faves, but none of these is a sure thing.  They’ve all crashed and burned at some point.  I’d skip this race.

RACE 3—Seven good horses.   Mile and an eighth on the turf.  I like three in here: PORFIDO; CELTIC NEW YEAR & WORTH REPEATING.  I actually kinda like PORFIDO the most (I think he might just lead them all the way around), but no one’s even got him in the money.  The other two are Brad Free’s second and third choices.  CELTIC NEW YEAR seems a more unamimous choice among the handicappers.

RACE 4—Eight maidens, four and up, going 6 furlongs.  SCREAMING DESTINY was on my horses to watch list.  Brad Free has him up to show; no one else even has him listed.  RANCHERO’s on everyone’s list, because he’s got the high last Beyer, and because he’s a Baffert.  Lightly run maidens…anything can happen.  I’d say skip.

RACE 5—Big race; 12 entrants.  The horse I picked the other day that got scratched out of the turf race—ENTABENI—is in here.  But instead of sprinting down the hill, he’s running a turf mile instead.  And now the pace doesn’t seem to set up for him.  Once again, I’m torn between two horses, and feeling like the fool…  RULE THE STORM and BEAUTIFUL AMERICAN.  These two are also Brad Free’s top picks.  (Actually, Brad’s got ENTABENI coming in third.)  RULE THE STORM’s getting more support from the other ‘cappers.  The one who gets to the front first should win.  A dozen horses on the turf.  Maybe skip this race.

RACE 6—Eight three year olds.  Five and half furlongs again.  Another poor ShowVivor race.  The ‘cappers all seem to like OHANA SPIRIT, but that’s because they don’t’ have enough information to compute.  Skip.

RACE 7—Ten horses running for $56k on the turf.  Once again, the one I think is obvious (RULE BREAKER), is Brad Free’s third pick, and no one else even has him in the money.  He was running well in stakes races in England, and now he gets Lasix for the second time and has a chance at redemption after a slow start in his US debut.  Darrell Vienna/David Flores…  He should be up in front in a paceless race.  I know no one else likes him, but I’m still picking him.  DAHOUD is a more popular pick, and should also be running towards the front. 

RACE 8—Eight maidens, six furlongs.  SHELTER COVER looks okay based on experience.  If I were betting, I’d take a shot with the Kathy Walsh debuter, SEMPER AUGUSTUS.  Too many wild cards.  Skip.

ShowVivor picks for Sunday, February 27, 2011

Looking ahead to Sunday’s card. 

RACE 1 -- This race has six entrants and features a standout runner. SILVER LUNA looks good on paper, looked good in the video, and is the top choice of all four handicappers in the Racing Form.  The only reason to go with another selection is to try to separate yourself from the pack with a choice at higher odds.

RACE 2 -- Eight runners here.  LOST PROPHET looms the standout, but I kinda smell a rat.  She won a week ago as the overwhelming favorite for $10K, and now they put her in for $8K?  Why? Why drop her price after she wins?  I don’t trust’er, and two of the four handicappers are picking others.  I’m gonna skip this race.

RACE 3 -- Seven horse field.  No first-time starters, but they’re generally inexperienced four-year olds.  That’s weird.  Everyone seems to like PREFERRED BEHAVIOR, but you got P.Val taking over for Edwin Maldonado on a Richard Rosales trainee??  Not enough information to compute.  Skip.

RACE 4 – Nine horse field.  It’ll still be raining Saturday night, so this’ll prolly come off the grass.  That’ll cut down on runners and leave us with a pretty good dirt performer: SAMBA SCHOOL.  She should get a pretty easy lead on this group and just keep going.  I feel good about that one.

RACE 5 -- 8-horse field.  I had FAIRWAY ROAD on my horses to watch list, and now I look down and see 3 of the 4 ‘cappers have her winning, and they all have her in the money.  Funny thing is, on paper, SMALL BUT MIGHTY looks pretty good, but, then again, she seems to do better against Cal-breds, and this is open company.  I’ll stick with FAIRWAY ROAD.

RACE 6 – Seven in an all-girl sprint.  WORD ASSOCIATION is the big pick among the ‘cappers, and it’s easy to see why.  Her Beyers in any of her last four races would be career best for all of the runners here but one; and she’s run in the money in 12 of 14 lifetime races.  She’s not a guaranteed winner, but she seems pretty sure to ShowVive.  You won’t be the only one in the contest using her.

RACE 7 – Eleven fillies and mare around two turns.  I like the also-eligible, GUMPTION, but there’s the obvious question of whether or not she even runs.  She was boxed in on the rail in her last, but she kept trying and edged out SUMMER GAMES for third.  SUMMER GAMES was alone on the lead in that last outing, and figures to get a similar trip Sunday.  I dunno… She got an easy lead last time and blew it; why should this time be any different?  If GUMPTION runs, she’s my pick.  If she doesn’t, I’m tempted to take a stab with ROYAL TIGER.  Ultimately, I don’t think this is a good ShowVivor race.  Skip.

RACE 8 – The Feature.  Not exactly Derby Day.  Ten horses at six and a half furlongs.  Down the hill...?  That’s up to the weatherman.  Sometimes they leave the feature on the grass even when it’s wet.  DANCING IN SILKS won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint a little over a year ago, and now he’s in this $100k handicap for statebreds.  How the mighty have fallen.  On the other hand, Kathy Walsh has taken over the training, and she can never be overlooked first time out, or off a layoff.  He’d be a good win bet, but his form's shaky, and I need more certitude with my ShowVivor pick.  My pick here is either EARNEDNEVERGIVEN or QUICK ENOUGH.  If it stays on the grass—EARNED; if it moves to the dirt—QUICK ENOUGH. 

RACE 9 – Eight Fillies; five debuters.  SPECTACULAR SKY should make the lead, and has experience at 7 furlongs.  Should be good, but I don’t use 3yo fillies in Showvivor.

Once again, scratches will determine a lot.  I'll use one of these:  SILVER LUNA, SAMBA SCHOOL, FAIRWAY ROAD, or my circumstantial choice between EARNEDNEVERGIVEN and QUICK ENOUGH.

 Oh, BTW, Baffert's got SERENE SOPHIA in the 7th, and PINK LOLLIPOPS in the 9th.

Show-vivor Picks for February 26, 2011

I had a chance to get an early look at Saturday's races.  Here's my rundown for Day One of Show-vivor at Santa Anita. http://showvivor.santaanita.com/

RACE 1 -- This race will probably go off with 11 runners.  A LOT for a Show-vivor pick.  Still, one of my strongest picks for the day is in this race.  ENTABENI was a heavy favorite in her last, but lost her chance at the break.  She broke at the back of the pack, but made up a lot of ground in the stretch.  Sadler trains and Rosario returns for the mount.  Only thing I don't like is the inside post.  It's tough to win down the hill from the inside.

RACE 2 -- Six runners in this race increases your odds of staying in the money.  The consensus favorite is BELO PURSE, because he's dropping to half his price for Carava off a 5th place finish in his last.  I dunno.  I don't see a 6f sprint in his race history.  Why are they cutting his price in half?  I don't trust him.

RACE 3 -- Seven horse field.  More than half of them are first-time starters.  JACOBCITA and RANDOM LUCK seem to be on everyone's list, based on previous experience.  But there's no way to know how good the new faces are.  I don't trust new horses in Show-vivor.

RACE 4 -- This is a large field with new horses, and most of them are going down the grassy slope for the first time.  I do like one of them based on the video I saw of her last-- CUTE N SASSY.  There's a lot to like, including the trainer and jockey.  Still, what makes a good wagering selection, might not be best for Show-vivor. 

RACE 5 -- 8-horse field.  I like two horses in here.  One's a safe pick; one's a ballsy one.  BERTRAN HILL is Brad Free's top selection, and looks pretty solid to me, too.  Finished a close 4th against tougher last out, after having to make up ground late.  The risky proposition is NICE MOVE, who broke extremely poorly last out (it says "broke through gate" in the Form), threw his head around, rushed up, and generally seemed to have trouble throughout.  He finished last 14 lengths behind. He's worked well since, and I'm certain he'll improve greatly.  Still, that'd take balls to make him your Show-vivor pick.

RACE 6 -- 8 young horses.  Two debuting; four with only one race under their belt; only two with more than two races.  The 'cappers are all over the place.  Three different horses are made as the "top selection" of three different handicappers, and Brad Free picks a different one.  And I like RED SHARP HUMOR and he's not chosen by any of them.  Don't use this race.

RACE 7 -- This is an 11 horse field. UNZIP ME is Brad Free's top selection and mine as well.  (Chuck Kuehas doesn't even have him coming in the money.)  Martin Jones training; Rafi up.  He seems an obvious winner to me.  Still, it's a fairly large field, and anything can happen in horse racing.

RACE 8 -- 6 horses in.  MR. COMMONS has the top last-out Beyer.  I won money on him last time out, but that was sprinting down the grassy hill, and now he's facing winners and running long on the dirt to boot.  Still... he's the one all the 'cappers like.  I wouldn't use him for Show-vivor.

RACE 9 -- Big field; inexperienced fillies.  SWEET CONSOLIDATOR has been consistently in the money in 7 of her last 8 races, but no one's got her as their top pick.  Everyone seems to like LIMERICK LANE, who is certainly no slam dunk.  CLUBHOUSE RULES and RIVER'S MAMBO should improve on the drop.  Like I said:  big field; inexperienced fillies.  Pass. 

 Pending any race day scratches, I'll use either ENTABENI, BERTRAN HILL or UNZIP ME as my Show-vivor selection.